UFC The Ultimate Fighter 14 Finale Picks

December 2nd, 2011admin

The Ultimate Fighter 14 Finale

Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
Venue: The Pearl at the Palms Casino Resort
Broadcast: Spike TV (Sportsnet in Canada) and Facebook.com

MAIN CARD (Spike TV)

• Michael Bisping vs. Jason “Mayhem” Miller
• Dennis Bermudez vs. Diego Brandao (“TUF 14″ featherweight finale)
• John Dodson vs. T.J. Dillashaw (“TUF 14″ bantamweight finale)
• Yves Edwards vs. Tony Ferguson
• Johnny Bedford vs. Louis Gaudinot

PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook)

• Marcus Brimage vs. Stephan Bass
• John Albert vs. Dustin Pague
• Roland Delorme vs. Josh Ferguson
• Josh Clopton vs. Steven Siler
• Bryan Caraway vs. Dustin Neace

After what was undeniably one of the best seasons of the ultimate fighter, the bantamweights and featherweights, along with their coaches will duel it out to be crowned the TUF season 14 champion(s).

Jason Mayhem Miller talks a lot of trash and dwells on the fact that Bisping got KTFO by Dan Henderson many fights ago.  I don’t know what Jason is yapping about, when is the last time he knocked anybody out?   Other than beating has-beens and cans, there hasn’t been too much to brag about.  Annoying as Bisping is, it does look like he will shut his opponent up.

John Dodson is damn quick, and T.J. Dillashaw is pretty damn quick himself.  These guys are very evenly matched, and definitely the top 2 of this weight class.  TJ has the size though, and his well rounded game appears more solid than Dodson.  Though he ducked Dodson during the series, it looks like it will pay off in the end.

Diego Brandao is simply wow.  Though Dennis can take a shot, many shots actually, Diego bangs harder than any other fighter on the show.  No contest in this one unless Dennis manages the take down Brandao and humps him for 3 rounds.

Why is Yves Edwards still fighting?  So that we can watch Tony Ferguson knock him out.

Looks like Bodog will be the place to bet on TUF 14, they are the only sportsbook so far with lines for all 4 main event fights.

Ultimate Fighter 14 Finale Fight Odds

• TUF 14 •
Jason Miller vs. Michael Bisping	+135 -165	+165 -190	+160 -185	+170 -220	+150 -213
John Dodson vs. TJ Dillashaw	+190 -250	+ -	+ -	+ -	+ -
Tony Ferguson vs. Yves Edwards	-325 +250	+ -	+ -	+ -	+ -
Dennis Bermudez vs. Diego Brandao	+280 -370	+ -	- +	- +	- +

UFC 139 Picks

November 15th, 2011admin

UFC 139: Shogun vs. Henderson

Location: San Jose, California
Venue: HP Pavilion
Broadcast: Pay-per-view, Spike TV and Facebook.com

MAIN CARD (Pay-per-view)

• Dan Henderson vs. Mauricio “Shogun” Rua
• Cung Le vs. Wanderlei Silva
• Brian Bowles vs. Urijah Faber
• Martin Kampmann vs. Rick Story
• Stephan Bonnar vs. Kyle Kingsbury

PRELIMINARY CARD (Spike TV)

• Ryan Bader vs. Jason Brilz
• Michael McDonald vs. Alex Soto

PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook)

• Tom Lawlor vs. Chris Weidman
• Nick Pace vs. Miguel Torres
• Rafael dos Anjos vs. Gleison Tibau
• Seth Baczynski vs. Matt Brown
• Shamar Bailey vs. Danny Castillo

After 2 weekends of Free UFC events, pay-per-view returns in the form of UFC 139 .  After a successful UFC on Fox, Yes I’m calling it a success due to the fact there was a knockout and no humpfest, UFC139 brings to your tv 2 very possibly entertaining main events.  Betting on UFC 139 will be enjoyable, and this is our UFC 139 picks.

It is very surprising that in 36 not once did Dan Henderson ever fight Shogun Rua, he fought Murilia Ninja, but never Mauricio.  Both are coming off of big wins and both know that a title shot is on the line for the winner.  The key for Henderson to winning this fight would be to swarm him and completely overwhelm Rua just like how Jones did, and how Forrest won in their first fight.  If he doesn’t, Rua is simply too technical and well rounded and will beat Henderson to the punch every time.  I’m guessing that Hollywood will be too careful and won’t advance on Shogun like he should, and Rua will win via judges decision or possibly catch him in a submission.

Cung Le versus Wanderlei Silva is a striker’s dream matchup, and a fight that will more than likely end the career of at least one of these 2 fighters.  Even with their ages and declining ability to win, both fighters still bring it and the fireworks will come out in this one.   Will Le be able to keep Silva with an assortment of kicks, probably at the beginning, but the axemurderer will keep on advancing and when they get close, good night Cung Le.  Cung simply does not have the dirty boxing skills to contain Wanderlei, bet on Wanderlei Silva to beat Cung Le.

Brian Bowles has only lost one time in his life, and that was to the current champion Dominick Cruz.  This is the guy who sent Miguel Torres back down to earth, and this is the guy who will take it to the California Kid Urijah Faber.  Urijah is a great fighter, a smaller more skilled version of Clay Guida who has tons of heart.  He is also the most popular fighter ever to come from the WEC and with that has been the contender in more championship fights than anybody else.  As of late he is no longer a big game fighter, he has lost his last 4 championship fights, and to Bowles his number 1 contender title.  Brian Bowles with his favorite standing guillotine ftw.

Martin Kampmann is one of those fighters who looks great against gatekeepers and the lower level fighters, but against the good fighters always falls short.  Rick Story had a huge setback last fight against Charlie Brenneman which could have put him in the top 5 welterweight category.  Well no way he will make that mistake again, I’m sure he trained his ass off for this fight and will completely bring it to Kampmann with a devastating takedown followed by a brutal ground & pound.

Stephan Bonnar vs Kyle Kingsbury, meh …

UFC 139 Fight Odds

• UFC 139 •
Dan Henderson vs. Mauricio Rua	+110 -140	+125 -145	+120 -140	+125 -163	-105 -133
Brian Bowles vs. Urijah Faber	+195 -250	+190 -220	+195 -230	+188 -250	+167 -238
Martin Kampmann vs. Rick Story	+115 -145	+120 -140	+110 -130	+125 -163	+115 -159
Chris Weidman vs. Tom Lawlor	-365 +275	+ -	-340 +280	-400 +275	-400 +250
Cung Le vs. Wanderlei Silva	-160 +130	-135 +115	-140 -120	-138 +110	-125 -111
Kyle Kingsbury vs. Stephan Bonnar	-160 +130	+ -	-130 EV	-150 +120	+ -
Jason Brilz vs. Ryan Bader	+290 -380	+ -	+240 -300	+275 -400	- +
Gleison Tibau vs. Rafael Dos Anjos	-165 +135	+ -	+ -	- +	- +
Miguel Torres vs. Nick Pace	-300 +230	- -	- -	- +	- +
Matt Brown vs. Seth Baczynski	-145 +115	+ -	+ -	- +	- +
Danny Castillo vs. Shamar Bailey	-300 +230	- +	- +	- +	- +

UFC on Fox 1 Picks – Velasquez vs Dos Santos

November 8th, 2011admin

UFC on FOX 1: Velasquez vs. Dos Santos

Location: Anaheim, California
Venue: Honda Center
Broadcast: FOX, Fox Deportees, Facebook.com and FOX.com

MAIN CARD (FOX)

• Champ Cain Velasquez vs. Junior Dos Santos (for heavyweight title)

PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook and FOX.com)

• Clay Guida vs. Ben Henderson
• Pablo Garza vs. Dustin Poirier
• Ricardo Lamas vs. Cub Swanson
• Clay Harvsion vs. DaMarques Johnson
• Norifumi “Kid” Yamamoto vs. Darren Uyenoyama
• Robert Peralta vs. Mackens Semerzier
• Alex Caceres vs. Cole Escovedo
• Paul Bradley vs. Mike Pierce
• Matt Lucas vs. Aaron Rosa

UFC finally makes their debut on national tv with UFC on Fox 1 featuring the heavyweight title fight of Cain Velasquez versus Junior Dos Santos.  Unfortunately this the 2nd out of 3 weekends of fights, will only have the 1 bout on live tv.  Facebook.com and Fox.com will be streaming a few other fights, as well as Fox Deportees if you receive that channel will be airing 3 preliminary fights.

How can you go wrong with picking either of these two fighters.  Both Cain and Junior have not even been hurt in the ufc, can’t remember either getting hit with a punch, neither has been put to the ground, they have each been their dominant selves.  The striking edge probably goes to Dos Santos, definitely the power edge, but Cain has the huge wrestling advantage, that may win him the fight.  In my opinion this fight is so evenly matched that it doesn’t make too much sense that Junior is a pretty decent underdog.  And when ever two even fighter face, I will always go with the underdog, and in this case Junior over Cain.

It’s a shame that the rest of the fights will not be featured on fox, betting just isn’t the same when you don’t watch it live.  Plus many would like to see the co-main event of Benson Henderson and Clay Guida.  Clay destroyed Anthony Pettis with his wrestling skills, but against Benson it will not be the same.  Yes he can get on top, but in guard Henderson is tough.  I don’t like to bet against somebody who works as hard as Guida, but Henderson is much the same with more skill and athleticism.  Still its not a bad underdog pick to take a chance on Guida at +220.  Nice parlay pick Guida and Cain to win.

UFC on FOX Fight Odds

• UFC on FOX 1 •
Cain Velasquez vs. Junior Dos Santos	-175 +145	-150 +120	-165 +145	-163 +125	-154 +110
Benson Henderson vs. Clay Guida	-280 +220	-240 +200	-250 +210	-275 +200	-250 +175
Dustin Poirier vs. Pablo Garza	-280 +220	+ -	-325 +250	+ -	+ -
Aaron Rosa vs. Matt Lucas	-135 +105	+ -	+ -	+ -	+ -
Mike Pierce vs. Paul Bradlet	-350 +265	+ -	+ -	- +	+ -
Mackens Semerzier vs. Robert Peralta	-135 +105	+ -	+ -	+ -	+ -
Clay Harvison vs. Damarques Johnson	+220 -280	+ -	+ -	- +	- +
Darren Uyenoyama vs. Norifumi Yamamoto	+280 -370	+ -	+ -	- +	- +
Cub Swanson vs. Ricardo Lamas	EV -130	- -	- -	- +	- +
Alex Caceres vs. Cole Escovedo	+230 -300	+ -	+ -	- +	- +
TBD vs. TBD	- +	- +	- +	- +	- +

UFC 137 Picks

October 24th, 2011admin

UFC 137: Penn vs. Diaz

Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
Venue: Mandalay Bay Events Center
Broadcast: Pay-per-view, Spike TV, and Facebook.com

MAIN CARD (Pay-per-view)

• Nick Diaz vs. B.J. Penn
• Cheick Kongo vs. Matt Mitrione
• Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic vs. Roy Nelson
• Hatsu Hioki vs. George Roop
• Jeff Curran vs. Scott Jorgensen

PRELIMINARY CARD (Spike TV)

• Donald Cerrone vs. Dennis Siver
• Tyson Griffin vs. Bart Palaszewski

PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook)

• Eliot Marshall vs. Brandon Vera
• Danny Downes vs. Ramsey Nijem
• Chris Camozzi vs. Francis Carmont
• Dustin Jacoby vs. Clifford Starks

First the main event for UFC 137 was a much anticipated showdown between the champion Georges St. Pierre versus Nick Diaz.  After Nick’s fail, it then became GSP vs Carlos Condit with a BJ Penn vs Diaz co-main event.  Then GSP gets injurred, and now BJ vs Nick becomes the main event.

This fight between BJ Penn and Nick Diaz might even be more desired than the original title fight.  Strangely BJ seems to be the odds on favorite on most bookmakers, in a fight which I would rank more even than anything.  Its been a long time since Nick has lost a fight while BJ is coming off a draw with Fitch.  Other than his KO of the soon to be retired Matt Hughes, BJ has not looked too impressive.  It is hard to fathom why he is the favored one here, when Nick has been unstoppable.  BJ has no BJJ edge here, striking is very even at best, and cardio is still a concern.  Though he always seems to show his best when least expected, I can’t see it happening here.  Act now, while Diaz is still the underdog!

It is hard to see how Mitrione wins, but he does.  Cheik Kongo while trying to improve his ground game has lost that fire that made him menacing.  No longer are the fury of punches and knees, replaced by a more technical striking style which I don’t think fits in.  He has to return to his crazy self, while still work on his ground game.  He won his last fight, but that was a punchers chance lucky punch that won it.  Mitrione is a heavyweight version of the Korean Zombie, but not quite Korean.  Look for him to move forward and just attack.  It will probably come to a decision, but he should win it.

Every card now it seems like I am writing about a fighter who should be on his last fight.  This time for sure it should be Mirko CroCop’s last fight.  Roy Nelson is the blob, he will get tired, but he wont go down.  But Cro Cop will go down, and Roy shouuld get back to the winning column with a KO to the jaw.

UFC 137 marks the debut of Japanese featherweight Hatsu Hioki when he faces George Roop.  After becoming the Sengoku champion, he left the organization to sign with the UFC, and fans will be happy when he does.  This guy has beat plenty of great fighters in the division, including Mark Hominick twice.  His BJJ and ground game will be way too much for the gatekeeper Roop, and though Japanese stars have not had too many brilliant debuts, this one should be no doubt about it.

Jeff Curran was once an up and comer in the WEC.  But after successive losses against many of the WEC stars he no longer became part of the picture.  Scott Jorgensen on the other hand has been winning.  Other than his decision loss for the Bantamweight belt against Dominick Cruz he is fighting at the top of his game.   Go with who’s fighting the best, and that’s Scotty.

UFC 137 Fight Odds

• UFC 137 •
BJ Penn vs. Nick Diaz	-120 -110	-125 +105	-125 +105	-138 +110	-125 -111
Cheick Kongo vs. Matt Mitrione	+110 -140	+ -	+120 -140	+110 -138	+110 -152
Mirko CroCop vs. Roy Nelson	- +	+245 -290	+240 -280	+240 -333	+220 -333
George Roop vs. Hatsu Hioki	+ -	+270 -325	+260 -320	+250 -350	+225 -357
Dennis Siver vs. Donald Cerrone	- +	+190 -220	+170 -200	-225 +175	+185 -270
Bart Palaszewski vs. Tyson Griffin	+ -	+250 -300	+245 -290	+250 -350	+220 -333
Jeff Curran vs. Scott Jorgensen	+ -	+ -	+ -	- +	- +
Eliot Marshall vs. Brandon Vera	+ -	+ -	+ -	- +	- +
Danny Downes vs. Ramsey Nijem	- -	- -	- -	- +	- +
Chris Camozzi vs. Francis Carmont	+ -	+ -	+ -	- +	- +
Dustin Jacoby vs. Clifford Starks	- +	- +	- +	- +	- +

UFC 136 Picks

October 4th, 2011admin

UFC 136: Edgar vs. Maynard III

Location: Houston, Texas
Venue: Toyota Center
Broadcast: Pay-per-view and Spike TV and Facebook.com

MAIN CARD (Pay-per-view)

• Champ Frankie Edgar vs. Gray Maynard (for lightweight title)
• Champ Jose Aldo vs. Kenny Florian (for featherweight title)
• Chael Sonnen vs. Brian Stann
• Melvin Guillard vs. Joe Lauzon
• Leonard Garcia vs. Nam Phan

PRELIMINARY CARD (Spike TV)

• Demian Maia vs. Jorge Santiago
• Anthony Pettis vs. Jeremy Stephens

PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook)

• Joey Beltran vs. Stipe Miocic
• Darren Elkins vs. Tiequan Zhang
• Eric Schafer vs. Aaron Simpson
• Steve Cantwell vs. Mike Massenzio

In what could be a potentially long night of fighting with 2 5-round title fights on the line, betting on UFC 136 looks to be a tough one.

Frankie Edgar escaped last fight with Gray Maynard by earning a controversial draw.  In fight #3, expect it to be the same as the other 2 fights, Edgar cannot handle the strength of Maynard.  Frankie can take on any 155 pounder, even those much stronger than him (ala Sean Sherk), but matchup wise he matches poorly against Gray.  Look for another 5 round decision, and hopefully the judges will score it correctly this time in favor of the new lightweight champion Gray Maynard.

While Jose Aldo did not look like his dominant self in his epic fight against Mark Hominick, he still won 4 out of the 5 rounds against a good fighter.  Kenny Florian is perhaps one of the best fighters in the octagon, in non title fights.  Nerves hinder Ken-Flo, and he freezes and gets away from his game plan when the belt is on the line.  Aldo should be able to do what he wants to do against Florian, and avoid his sharp elbows.

Chael Sonnen, the fighter who was minutes away from dethroning the king Anderson Silva, returns to the octagon after serving his suspension for elevated testosterone levels.  Brian Stann is the up-and-comer in this number 1 contender fight.   This would be a nice time for an upset.  Chael is a great wrestler, but extremely over-confident right now.  Stann is working hard, and doing what it takes to war.  Stann does have wrestling skills and as long as he uses his power to stop Chael, he can pull it off.

There is probably not any hotter fighter at 155 than Guillard right now, and with their combined total of fights in the UFC, it is surprising that these two have not met before.  They say that some fighters have a punchers chance, well Joe Lauzon has a grapplers chance.   On their feet, Joe has no chance, but he does have some sneaky submissions.  Melvin should win this fight, but there is always that chance …

Leonard Garcia won the first fight against Nam Phan, but Nam is the early favorite on this fight … What gives?  Their fight of the night was pretty even, and it is safe to assume that this will be as well, so go with the underdog.  Leonard has always been a win one, lose one, win one fighter, and its time for him to win one.

UFC 136 Fight Odds

• UFC 136 •
Frank Edgar vs. Gray Maynard	-155 +125	-150 +120	-145 +125	-163 +125	-167 +120
Brian Stann vs. Chael Sonnen	+200 -260	+220 -280	+225 -265	+225 -300	+190 -278
Jose Aldo vs. Kenny Florian	-340 +260	-325 +250	-325 +265	-350 +250	-312 +210
Joe Lauzon vs. Melvin Guillard	+245 -315	+240 -300	+270 -330	+250 -350	+210 -312
Anthony Pettis vs. Jeremy Stephens	-285 +225	-285 +225	-300 +250	-333 +240	-286 +195
Darren Elkins vs. Tiequan Zhang	+120 -150	- +	EV -120	+110 -138	- +
Leonard Garcia vs. Nam Phan	+ -	+ -	+ -	- +	- +
Mike Massenzio vs. Steve Cantwell	+ -	+ -	+ -	- +	- +
Joey Beltran vs. Stipe Miocic	- -	- -	- -	- +	- +
Demian Maia vs. Jorge Santiago	+ -	+ -	+ -	- +	- +
Aaron Simpson vs. Eric Schafer	- +	- +	- +	- +	- +