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UFC on Fox 1 Picks – Velasquez vs Dos Santos

November 8th, 2011

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UFC on FOX 1: Velasquez vs. Dos Santos

Date: Nov 12, 2011

Location: Anaheim, California
Venue: Honda Center
Broadcast: FOX, Fox Deportees, Facebook.com and FOX.com

MAIN CARD (FOX)

Champ Cain Velasquez vs. Junior Dos Santos (for heavyweight title)

PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook and FOX.com)

Clay Guida vs. Ben Henderson
Pablo Garza vs. Dustin Poirier
Ricardo Lamas vs. Cub Swanson
Clay Harvsion vs. DaMarques Johnson
Norifumi “Kid” Yamamoto vs. Darren Uyenoyama
Robert Peralta vs. Mackens Semerzier
Alex Caceres vs. Cole Escovedo
Paul Bradley vs. Mike Pierce
Matt Lucas vs. Aaron Rosa

UFC finally makes their debut on national tv with UFC on Fox 1 featuring the heavyweight title fight of Cain Velasquez versus Junior Dos Santos. Unfortunately this the 2nd out of 3 weekends of fights, will only have the 1 bout on live tv. Facebook.com and Fox.com will be streaming a few other fights, as well as Fox Deportees if you receive that channel will be airing 3 preliminary fights.

How can you go wrong with picking either of these two fighters. Both Cain and Junior have not even been hurt in the ufc, can’t remember either getting hit with a punch, neither has been put to the ground, they have each been their dominant selves. The striking edge probably goes to Dos Santos, definitely the power edge, but Cain has the huge wrestling advantage, that may win him the fight. In my opinion this fight is so evenly matched that it doesn’t make too much sense that Junior is a pretty decent underdog. And when ever two even fighter face, I will always go with the underdog, and in this case Junior over Cain.

It’s a shame that the rest of the fights will not be featured on fox, betting just isn’t the same when you don’t watch it live. Plus many would like to see the co-main event of Benson Henderson and Clay Guida. Clay destroyed Anthony Pettis with his wrestling skills, but against Benson it will not be the same. Yes he can get on top, but in guard Henderson is tough. I don’t like to bet against somebody who works as hard as Guida, but Henderson is much the same with more skill and athleticism. Still its not a bad underdog pick to take a chance on Guida at +220. Nice parlay pick Guida and Cain to win.

UFC on FOX Fight Odds

• UFC on FOX 1 •
Cain Velasquez vs. Junior Dos Santos	-175 +145	-150 +120	-165 +145	-163 +125	-154 +110
Benson Henderson vs. Clay Guida	-280 +220	-240 +200	-250 +210	-275 +200	-250 +175
Dustin Poirier vs. Pablo Garza	-280 +220	+ -	-325 +250	+ -	+ -
Aaron Rosa vs. Matt Lucas	-135 +105	+ -	+ -	+ -	+ -
Mike Pierce vs. Paul Bradlet	-350 +265	+ -	+ -	- +	+ -
Mackens Semerzier vs. Robert Peralta	-135 +105	+ -	+ -	+ -	+ -
Clay Harvison vs. Damarques Johnson	+220 -280	+ -	+ -	- +	- +
Darren Uyenoyama vs. Norifumi Yamamoto	+280 -370	+ -	+ -	- +	- +
Cub Swanson vs. Ricardo Lamas	EV -130	- -	- -	- +	- +
Alex Caceres vs. Cole Escovedo	+230 -300	+ -	+ -	- +	- +
TBD vs. TBD	- +	- +	- +	- +	- +

Tags: MMA on TV, UFC Picks
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UFC 124 Betting Preview

December 9th, 2010

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UFC 124 Betting Preview at Bodog
by Richard Gardner | Bodog Sportsbook Manager

We will see if Josh Koscheck’s predictions about his own fights are better than his hockey forecasts.

When the UFC visited Montreal’s Bell Centre back in early May for UFC 113, Koscheck took Paul Daley down to the ground and controlled him for most of three straight rounds, winning a straight 30-27 unanimous decision. The victory was by far the biggest of Koscheck’s career and it earned him a welterweight title bout against Georges St. Pierre.

After that Daley fight, Koscheck taunted the Montreal fans by promising to defeat St. Pierre, who is from the city, and vowing that the Pittsburgh Penguins would defeat the Montreal Canadiens in the then-ongoing NHL Stanley Cup playoffs. Koscheck obviously embraces his role as UFC’s second-biggest villain behind Brock Lesnar. Two of the most popular things in Montreal are the Canadiens and St. Pierre, so those taunts obviously didn’t go over well with the crowd and will be remembered.

The Penguins, as we all know, were upset by the Canadiens in the Eastern Conference semifinals last year and now Koscheck gets his shot to at least make good on his St. Pierre prediction at UFC 124 on Saturday night back in Montreal.

These two fighters know each other well. Back on Aug. 25, 2007, at UFC 74 St. Pierre beat Koscheck, a four-time NCAA wrestling All-American, by unanimous decision by mainly outwrestling and maintaining the top position throughout most of the fight. In addition, Koscheck and St. Pierre also coached opposing teams in “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 12, which just ended.

In their first fight, St. Pierre, who is considered by many the best pound-for-pound fighter in the UFC, closed as a -240 favorite against Koscheck. But the challenger believes he is a much different fighter these days.

“One of the things that I’ve been good at in my whole career is fighting a way to get what I want,” said Koscheck. “He’s gonna see that. I’m coming to hurt you and I’m gonna put on a show and I’m gonna put out a victory. … After several years of training in MMA, training in boxing, training in jujitsu, I’m a different fighter than when he fought me.”

The line for Saturday’s fight opened with St. Pierre (20-2-0) as a -450 favorite, but heavy action on both St. Pierre and parlays involving GSP moved the line to -525. At this point we saw significant buyback on Koscheck (currently +300) and decided to move the line to St. Pierre -500 where it currently sits and is generating solid two-sided action. In fact, in total handle it’s nearly a 50-50 split on the fighters.

Being favored is nothing new for St. Pierre, who has won his past seven fights overall. That streak began with the Koscheck victory following a TKO loss to Matt Serra earlier in 2007 at UFC 69. In all seven of those wins GSP entered as the betting favorite – six were title defenses. The current -500 number is the second-biggest number that St. Pierre has been in his winning streak. The only time he was a bigger favorite was at UFC 111 in March when he was -625 against British striker Dan Hardy and beat Hardy by unanimous decision.

This is the first time that Koscheck (15-4-0) has been an underdog since his first fight with St. Pierre. In that stretch he has gone 6-2, losing only to Thiago Alves and Paulo Thiago (he needs to stop fighting guys named Thiago). The popular strategy for many players on this bout has been either to bet Koscheck straight up and take advantage of the big odds or bet St. Pierre in a parlay with some of the other champions at higher odds to increase the payout. For example, a parlay consisting of St. Pierre at -500, Anderson Silva (UFC 126 vs. Vitor Belfort) at -325 and Cain Velasquez (TBD, vs. Junior dos Santos) at -225 pays +127.

Tags: MMA on TV
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UFC on Versus 2 Picks – Jones vs Matyushenko

July 30th, 2010

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UFC on Versus 2: Jones vs. Matyushenko

Date: Aug 01, 2010

Location: San Diego, Calif.
Venue: San Diego Sports Arena
Broadcast: Versus

MAIN CARD

Jon Jones vs. Vladimir Matyushenko
Mark Munoz vs. Yushin Okami
Jake Ellenberger vs. John Howard
Takanori Gomi vs. Tyson Griffin

PRELIMINARY CARD

Paul Kelly vs. Jacob Volkmann
DaMarques Johnson vs. Matthew Riddle
James Irvin vs. Igor Pokrajac
Mike Massenzio vs. Brian Stann
Darren Elkins vs. Charles Oliveira
Rob Kimmons vs. Steve Steinbeiss

Jon Bones Jones is back, and so is free UFC on tv! UFC on Versus 1 was a huge success and I’d imagine this will be as well.

There is no possible way that I feel Jon “Bones” Jones will ever lose to Vladimir Matyushenko (barring a weird disqualification). Even if the +400 tempts you, no chance. Maty is old, Jones and young and just too good. This is a lock.

In my opinion, one of the most overated fighters ever had to be Takanori Gomi. Though I enjoy watching his fighting style, I don’t think he was ever that great, and was overjoyed when Diaz “beat” him. Tyson Griffin has since evolved into a great fighter and should have no trouble simply “outskilling” Gomi.

Here is an upset to take a look at, Mark Munoz definately has a chance to win over Yushin Okami. Okami still doesn’t try to finish, and Munoz definately has both the wrestling and GnP skills for a decision win here.

Here is another upset possibility, how is John “Doomsday” Howard an underdog here? This guy is Knockout of the Night potential and he is an underdog vs Ellenberger who still hasn’t proven much in the octagon so far? Take Doomsday for sure here.

Another upset potential in the preliminaries is Demarques Johnson over Matthew Riddle